飞行员人因可靠性定量预测

为有效预测飞行员的人因可靠性,以保障飞行安全,基于认知可靠性与失误分析法(CREAM)的扩展法,建立飞行员人因可靠性定量预测模型。依据飞行员的任务特点,调整认知行为及认知功能。通过优化共同绩效条件(CPC)因子水平等级,并增加新的因子,改进CPC因子依赖规则,用于修正因子的初始评估结果,解决扩展法未考虑因子间关系的问题,从而完成模型的建立。利用回看分析法验证模型的有效性,采用所建立的模型和扩展法分别对已发生的飞行案例进行预测,并与实际发生结果对比分析。结果表明,与扩展法相比,采用飞行员定量预测模型得到的预测结果与案例发生结果所反映的控制模式更为匹配。     

钻屑法测定煤层H_2S含量

为了测定煤层硫化氢(H2S)含量,防治矿井H2S涌出,提出一种通过钻屑法测定煤层H2S含量的方法。在未受采动影响的新鲜煤壁,采用钻屑法取样,通过测定煤样H2S解吸量、取样过程损失量和H2S残存量确定煤层H2S含量。根据溶于水中H2S的p H值和色谱分析解吸气体中H2S体积分数,确定H2S解吸量;根据煤样解吸规律和气样H2S体积分数,确定H2S损失量;根据色谱分析残存气体中H2S体积分数,确定其残存量。用此方法,对山西某矿H2S涌出煤层进行现场和实验室测定。研究表明,该矿H2S含量为(4.465~6.701)×10-3m3/t。钻屑法测定煤层H2S含量是可行的,可以为矿井H2S治理提供基础数据。     

山西省绿色转型发展现状评价及路径研究

从经济、社会、资源、环境保护4个层面构建了切合山西省实际情况的绿色转型发展指标体系,采用熵权法及聚类分析方法对山西省的绿色转型发展现状进行了评价,根据评价结果,结合政策背景,提出了山西省实现绿色转型发展的路径,以实现山西省均衡快速的绿色转型发展。     

典型有机磷酸酯阻燃剂分析方法研究进展

有机磷酸酯(OPEs)是一类重要的有机磷阻燃剂,近些年逐渐取代了溴代阻燃剂,广泛应用于各行各业,也因此导致在多种环境介质中有较高的暴露量和潜在风险。已有研究表明,OPEs具有一定的毒理效应,对人体及其他生物均有潜在危害。本文综述了近年来国内外OPEs的检测技术,详述了不同环境介质OPEs的前处理方法。结果表明,目前固相萃取(SPE)和固相微萃取(SPME)仍是水样前处理的主要方法;对于固体样品,加速溶剂萃取/加压液相萃取(ASE/PLE)和微波辅助萃取(MAE)应用较多;虽然大气样品仍以固体吸附剂方式为主,但已向在线一体化方向发展;而生物样品的前处理方法多与水样和固体样品方法相似;但是对于复杂环境介质中OPEs样品的前处理较为困难,方法有待改善;气相色谱-质谱联用(GC-MS)和气相色谱-氮磷检测器(GC-NPD)对弱极性和易挥发的OPEs分析效果好,而强极性和难挥发的OPEs多用液相色谱-质谱联用(LCMS);气相色谱-质谱串联(GC-MS/MS)、液相色谱-质谱串联(LC-MS/MS)和高效液相色谱-质谱串联(UPLC-MS/MS)等对多种复杂的环境介质中的OPEs均有较好的检测分析效果,但并未普及。最后,对OPEs分析测试方法的发展趋势提出了展望。     

基于CREAM和贝叶斯网络的空管人误概率预测方法

针对研究管制人因可靠性时存在的模糊性和片面性问题，采用认知可靠性与失误分析方法（CREAM）中的扩展预测法，计算10项管制通用任务的人误概率；在此基础上，以管制行为形成因子作为根节点构建贝叶斯网络，建立其与情景控制模式的不确定关系模型，对管制员在多任务中的人误概率进行预测。研究结果表明:在由相同评判者给出行为形成因子影响效应的前提下，由CREAM扩展预测法和构建贝叶斯网络的方法预测得到的多数任务的人误概率差异较大，从方法的客观性、合理性和适用性角度分析，贝叶斯网络在研究该问题时更具优势。     

基于贝叶斯网络气化炉供料系统风险分析

为解决当前气化炉供料系统风险分析不完善的状况，提出1种基于贝叶斯网络和HAZOP的风险分析模型。以某单日投煤量3 000 t级气化炉煤化工企业实际运行情况为研究对象，应用HAZOP法对其进行风险分析，并将HAZOP分析结果中各偏差产生原因转化为贝叶斯网络节点；考虑到先验知识的缺乏问题，引入Leaky Noisy OR模型，通过文献资料和相关领域专家经验知识获得先验概率，并利用贝叶斯网络进行风险分析，找出系统运行的薄弱环节。结果表明:未知因素影响会使各节点的后验概率值差异性降低，更加贴合实际；在引入未知因素影响后，系统运行薄弱环节并未发生改变。     

维修时间不确定性下配电网灾后维修队安排的鲁棒恢复研究*

为最小化灾后配电网损失量，准确描述完整维修队工作时间（分为路途时间与具体维修时间），依据台风路径对维修队所需路途时间进行分类，并利用期望概率描述具体维修时间的不确定性。建立2阶段分布式鲁棒优化模型，采用CCG算法分析国内某地区配电网算例发现:考虑维修时间不确定性可以有效减少配电网损失量。     

Experiment and simulation research of evolution process for LNG leakage and diffusion

The frequent occurrence of LNG leakage accidents has caused serious economic loss and environmental damage. Experiments and simulations can be combined to obtain the transient process of LNG leakage and diffusion. This paper analyzed LNG leakage diffusion rules with experiment results obtained by depleting 1.4t LNG. The vapor clouds and LNG concentration are measured, which can be a comparison with the simulation results. Computational fluid dynamics and gas diffusion theory were chosen as the theoretical basis, simulating the transient process of LNG gasification to obtain the diffusion concentration rules. The simulation of LNG diffusion is divided into two parts: LNG leakage at the source and atmospheric diffusion. The maximum concentration of methane in the experiment was 4.1%, and the maximum concentration in the simulation was 4.6%. The results show good agreement of the deviation statistics, which fall in the standard recommendation value range. Then we make a prediction of the dangerous concentration area and the flammability hazard zone of LNG leakage accident. The simulation results show that the range of the lower wind direction danger area firstly increases and then decreases, and the maximum distance of IDLH increases firstly and arrived at the peak of 52  m at 300s.     

Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

A hybrid decision-making approach based on FCM and MOORA for occupational health and safety risk analysis

IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization.